During an October meeting, the administration presents a report to the board about enrollment patterns in the school system. The data shows a ten-year history and a five-year projection based on the birthrate for the community. The projection shows an expected annual enrollment loss of 5-6% in each of the next five years. In this system that translates into approximately 60 fewer students per year in grades K-12.
The presentation also reports on a projected cost-per-student increase in the district, from $8,000 to $10,000 over the next five years for the existing program. This estimate reveals a loss of income from the state based on enrollment decline due to the new per pupil funding formula. Questions from board members about the impact on the local school tax rate are raised. Other questions about program priorities, school improvement action plans, and tuition income potential are briefly discussed.
As a result of the presentation, the board asks the administration to develop other data points about the cost drivers for the system. In particular they want to know:
What are the projected health insurance costs for the next five years?
What are the trends for special education costs in the district?
What are the current student/teacher ratios, and what will the enrollment declines do to the ratios?
What are the cost projections for contractual obligations with the staff?The superintendent suggests that a special information session to acquaint the community with the newer data be organized as soon as possible and prior to the development of the new budget cycle. The board agrees to support this effort and urges that the staff be involved in this discussion as well.
Does your school system have these data sets under development?
Should the community and staff be involved in these preliminary information gathering sessions?
Is your system faced with the issues presented in the scenario?